Brendan Nyhan

New NYT: How marching for science risks politicizing it

From my new Upshot column:

Before the recent March for Science, scholars and journalists debated the likely effect of the protest: Would it defend science against politicization or unnecessarily polarize the public on the value of the scientific enterprise?

Some early evidence suggests the march may have widened the divide among liberals and conservatives in their views of scientists but not, crucially, toward the research they conduct.

VPR interview on democratic norms after first 100 days

My new interview with Vermont Public Radio's Mitch Wertlieb on the state of democratic norms in the United States (MP3):

Have your concerns about an erosion of political norms been eased, or have they increased?

“I would say there's good news and bad news. Certainly some of the most extreme fears haven't been realized, and that's of course welcome.

“But I think in some ways those fears have been caricatured. There was a whole Wall Street Journal editorial that basically said, ‘Trump isn’t Hitler, therefore everyone's worries about him are invalid.’

“And I think that's both the wrong comparison, and we're at far too early a stage to draw any final conclusions about where we are or what damage may be done.”

See also my prior interviews with Wertlieb in December and January on this topic.

New CNN: Conspiracy theories transcend political party

A segment in which I'm interviewed from CNN's The Lead with Jake Tapper:

New NYT: Why false claims continue to be believed

From my new Upshot column (co-authored with Amanda Taub):

“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts,” goes the saying — one that now seems like a relic of simpler times.

Today, President Trump is sticking with his own facts — his claim that the Obama administration wiretapped him during the election — in the face of testimony to the contrary by the F.B.I. director, James Comey...

Mr. Trump’s claims may appear to his opponents to have been embarrassingly debunked. But social science research suggests that Mr. Trump’s alternative version of reality may appeal to his supporters.

Partisan polarization is now so extreme in the United States that it affects the way that people consume and understand information — the facts they believe, and what events they think are important. The wiretapping allegations could well become part of a partisan narrative that is too powerful to be dispelled.

Bright Line Watch expert survey on U.S. democracy

The Bright Line Watch initiative that I am co-organizing with John Carey (Dartmouth), Gretchen Helmke (Rochester), and Susan Stokes (Yale) has released its first expert survey results on the state of American democracy:

Despite an atmosphere of pessimism or panic among many observers and public intellectuals, the political science community holds a rather nuanced view of democratic governance in the United States as of February 2017. They rate the U.S. as performing well on many of the criteria that they say are most important for democracy. For instance, 86% say the United States fully or mostly meets the standard that elections are free and fair and approximately 80% say the same for the standards of protecting free speech and the judiciary limiting executive power.

The results, however, also provide significant reason for concern. Fewer than two-thirds (66%) are as confident that journalists can operate unimpeded by the state, that the elected branches respect judicial independence (65%), or that government agencies are not used to monitor and harass political opponents (60%). Only the barest majorities are confident that Congress can effectively check the executive or that executive authority can be constrained within constitutional limits (52% and 51%, respectively).

For more, see coverage at The Upshot and our mission statement on the Bright Line Watch website.

New NYT: Why Dems are embracing conspiracy theories

From my new Upshot column:

Even as Democrats decry the false claims streaming regularly from the White House, they appear to have become more vulnerable to unsupported claims and conspiracy theories that flatter their own political prejudices. The reason isn’t just that a Republican now occupies the White House. Political psychology research suggests that losing political control can make people more vulnerable to misinformation and conspiracy theories.

New NYT: The Obamacare/ACA confusion

From my new Upshot column (co-authored with Kyle Dropp):

A sizable minority of Americans don’t understand that Obamacare is just another name for the Affordable Care Act.

These findings, from a poll by Morning Consult, illustrate the extent of public confusion over a health law that President Trump and Republicans in Congress hope to repeal.

New NYT: The GOP's incentive to stick with Trump

From my new Upshot column (co-authored with Kyle Dropp):

Despite the growing protests against President Trump’s executive action on refugees and other people from seven predominantly Muslim countries, relatively few members of his party have spoken out against the policy — a familiar pattern since the election. To date, no congressional Republicans have consistently resisted Mr. Trump or his agenda even though his approval ratings are already historically low for a new president.

Although some Republicans may fear a voter backlash in the midterm election, the greatest threat to re-election for most G.O.P. members of Congress is still a primary challenge. That’s what many legislators probably fear they will get if they oppose Mr. Trump, who is viewed overwhelmingly favorably among their partisan base, according to polling data.

VPR interview on Trump damaging democratic norms

My new interview with Vermont Public Radio's Mitch Wertlieb (MP3):

Donald J. Trump will be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States on Friday. A Dartmouth professor has been arguing that Trump's candidacy and presidential campaign have steadily eroded the political norms that provide a solid foundation for American democracy.

Prior to the inauguration, VPR checked in with Brendan Nyhan, a professor in the department of government at Dartmouth College, to get his take on the transition period before Donald Trump officially takes office.

See also my prior interview with Wertlieb on the same topic (MP3).

The state of American democracy

My Inauguration Day Twitter essay: The state of American democracy

New NYT: How Trump news overload smothers scandal

From my new Upshot column:

The bar for scandal in the Trump administration keeps being raised.

Every week brings potentially damaging developments that in other contexts could have generated weekslong controversies. With so many competing stories, however, they are frequently ignored or forgotten.

As a result, even negative coverage can sometimes benefit President-elect Donald J. Trump by displacing potentially more damaging stories from the news agenda.

New ProPublica/VPR interviews on democratic norms

My interview with Eric Umansky on the Pro Publica podcast:

See also my interview with Mitch Wertlieb on Vermont Public Radio, which can't be embedded directly (MP3).

New Primary Concerns podcast interview

My interview with Brian Beutler of The New Republic on his Primary Concerns podcast:

New Atlantic Q&A on eroding democratic norms

An interview with Clare Foran of The Atlantic inspired by my recent tweetstorm:

I think people are making the mistake of thinking that there will be a dramatic moment when they should speak out. Growing tolerance for conflicts of interest in government, limitations on media access and accountability, and harsh treatment of minority groups can accumulate. Similarly, the slow disappearance of various norms can damage our democracy when we’re not paying attention. Hopefully the worst-case scenario never happens—no one is saying the U.S. government is disappearing overnight—but each norm that falls is one fewer safeguard against executive overreach than we had before. Even if we never become an authoritarian state, our governance will suffer as a result.

New NYT: How Trump could reshape the party system

From my new Upshot column:

Donald J. Trump’s victory could well push the American party system toward a clash between an overwhelmingly white ethnic party and a cosmopolitan coalition of minority groups and college-educated whites.

Despite the unexpected result, Mr. Trump lost the popular vote in an election that in some respects closely resembled Barack Obama’s victory over Mitt Romney in 2012 — an ordinary end to a very abnormal campaign. The power of party identification held approximately 90 percent of Republicans in Mr. Trump’s camp.

However, Mr. Trump’s campaign may set in motion a process that reorients American politics toward the cosmopolitanism versus nationalism divide that he emphasized, reconfiguring our party system and shaping our politics for decades to come. The power of social identity suggests that such a dynamic could be difficult to stop once set in motion.

New NYT: Fact-checking can change views

From my new Upshot column:

A lot of time and effort has been spent correcting the falsehoods, lies, rumors and conspiracy theories promoted by politicians during this election — most notably by Donald J. Trump. Does it do any good? Or have we entered a “post-fact” age?

In some cases, research I have conducted with the political scientist Jason Reifler has found that correcting people’s false beliefs can be ineffective or, worse, make them cling to their views even more strongly.

However, other research we have done suggests that fact-checking can be effective. The political scientists Thomas Wood and Ethan Porter have also found corrective information is generally effective in reducing false beliefs, though the extent to which it is effective can depend on people’s political views.

The four of us decided to evaluate the effectiveness of corrective information in reducing misperceptions during this election.

New NYT: Voters not outraged over FBI disclosure

From my new Upshot column (co-authored with Kyle Dropp):

Hillary Clinton and President Obama are outraged about the F.B.I. director James Comey’s decision to disclose further inquiries into her handling of confidential email, but are the American people?

Although numerous prosecutors and former Department of Justice officials have accused Mr. Comey of violating formal guidelines and informal norms against commenting on continuing investigations or publicizing political cases just before elections, voters do not seem to share their indignation.

New NYT: Birtherism diminished but far from dead

From my new Upshot column (co-authored with Kyle Dropp):

America’s most prominent birther has finally disavowed the myth he helped to create. Will Donald J. Trump’s concession affect the public’s belief about whether President Obama was born in the United States?

Results from a new Morning Consult poll of registered voters suggest that fewer Americans now believe that President Obama was born outside the country — the false claim that Mr. Trump renounced last Friday — although birtherism continues to linger among a subset of the public.

New NYT: The effects of gaffes and health concerns

From my new Upshot column:

Hillary Clinton undoubtedly had a tough weekend, but how much will it affect the election?

On Friday night, Mrs. Clinton said half of Donald J. Trump’s supporters belonged in “the basket of deplorables” — “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic.” Survey data suggests that a substantial fraction of Mr. Trump’s supporters do hold deeply negative views of several demographic groups, but after heavy criticism she said, “I regret saying ‘half’ — that was wrong.”

Then on Sunday, Mrs. Clinton staggered in public. Following hours of uncertainty, her campaign disclosed that she had previously been diagnosed with pneumonia, prompting renewed questions about her health and her secretive tendencies.

Both episodes are receiving extensive news media coverage, but past experience shows that what many consider to be gaffes typically have very limited effects on the actual vote. Candidate health issues, however, could be more unpredictable.

New NYT: The paradox of echo chambers

From my new Upshot column:

Anyone who has followed this election carefully would be forgiven for thinking that voters have diverged into two separate realities. But it’s too soon to declare that we have entered a “post-fact” apocalypse, especially when we consider where people get information about politics.

New research shows that the great majority of people learn about political news from mainstream, relatively centrist media sources, not ideological websites or cable channels. However, relatively small numbers of partisans, especially Republicans, are heavy consumers of a highly polarized media diet.

This dynamic helps explain why there is so much concern about “echo chambers,” even though most people don’t confine themselves to one.

New NYT: The problem with Trump's "rigged" claim

From my new Upshot column:

As public support turns against him, Donald Trump is suggesting without evidence that the election could be “rigged” by Democrats using vote fraud. This claim threatens the norms of American elections and could provoke a damaging reaction among his supporters.

Ultimately, democracies depend on losers’ acceptance of the legitimacy of the political process. That’s why the norm of accepting election outcomes among defeated presidential candidates is so important.

New Monkey Cage: The "missing 28 pages" won't help

From a new Monkey Cage post co-authored with my former students Sasha Dudding and Heather Szilagyi:

Last month, the House Intelligence Committee released a previously classified section of the 2002 congressional inquiry into the September 11 attacks known as the missing “28 pages.” The U.S. government allegedly kept this document confidential to protect its relationship with Saudi Arabia. Instead, the move ended up fueling a massive controversy centered on claims of a cover-up by the U.S. government intended to suppress evidence of Saudi complicity in the 9/11 attacks.

Our research helps explain why withholding information from government documents like the “28 pages” is so often counterproductive. In a new article (written with co-authors at Dartmouth College) in the Journal of Experimental Political Science, we show how the use of redactions can undermine the effectiveness of documents intended to reduce belief in conspiracy theories. Keeping information from the public can create the perception of a cover-up even when none exists.

Our post is based on our new article in the Journal of Experimental Political Science (ungated), which was co-authored with the students in my 2014 Experiments in Politics seminar:

Classified or Coverup? The Effect of Redactions on Conspiracy Theory Beliefs

Brendan Nyhan, Franklin Dickinson, Sasha Dudding, Enxhi Dylgjeri, Eric Neiley, Christopher Pullerits, Minae Seog, Andy Simpson, Heather Szilagyi and Colin Walmsley

Conspiracy theories are prevalent among the public. Governments frequently release official documents attempting to explain events that inspire these beliefs. However, these documents are often heavily redacted, a practice that lay epistemic theory suggests might be interpreted as evidence for a conspiracy. To investigate this possibility, we tested the effect of redactions on beliefs in a well-known conspiracy theory. Results from two preregistered experiments indicate that conspiracy beliefs were higher when people were exposed to seemingly redacted documents compared to when they were exposed to unredacted documents that were otherwise identical. In addition, unredacted documents consistently lowered conspiracy beliefs relative to controls while redacted documents had reduced or null effects, suggesting that lay epistemic interpretations of the redactions undermined the effect of information in the documents. Our findings, which do not vary by conspiracy predispositions, suggest policymakers should be more transparent when releasing documents to refute misinformation.

New NYT: Trump's strategy on crime

From my new Upshot column:

In declaring himself "the law and order candidate" in his convention speech Thursday night, Donald Trump officially made crime one of his core issues. This emphasis is relatively new, and it's strategic.

New NYT: The Clinton case in context

From my new Upshot column:

The F.B.I. recommendation on Tuesday not to file charges against Hillary Clinton for what the director James Comey called her “extremely careless” email practices has set off a debate over whether there was any partisan influence in the case.

The issue came to the fore last week when news broke that former President Bill Clinton had boarded Attorney General Loretta Lynch’s plane. Though both sides insisted they had not discussed the case against Mrs. Clinton, the resulting furor prompted Ms. Lynch to vow to accept the recommendation of career prosecutors and the F.B.I. on whether to file charges.

In his announcement of the recommendation, which is likely to be endorsed by prosecutors at the Department of Justice, Mr. Comey said that the investigation had not been subject to outside influence.

Mr. Comey’s claim carries credibility given his status as a Republican who served in the George W. Bush administration. The case was also extraordinary in its level of importance and scrutiny — which may have created pressure to avoid any appearance of affecting the November election — and may not fit previous patterns. However, the historical record suggests that politically sensitive cases are often not immune from politics, especially in the timing of when they are resolved.

New NYT: Don't assume Trump voters naïve

From my new Upshot column:

Donald Trump keeps making promises that experts don’t think he can possibly fulfill. It might seem that he has people fooled by his implausible claims, which include pledges to make Mexico pay for a border wall and to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States. The psychologist David Dunning, for instance, has suggested that many voters are backing Mr. Trump because they lack the expertise to recognize his mistakes.

But in some news reports, his supporters sound more realistic about what Mr. Trump, the presumptive G.O.P. nominee, could accomplish as president.

New NYT: Not time for change to Trump?

From my new Upshot column:

With Donald Trump’s unfavorable ratings at record levels, the Republican Party’s prospects for taking back the White House already seem bleak. But its chances may be even worse yet. The doubts Mr. Trump has raised during his primary campaign also undermine the strongest rationale for any Republican candidate in this election: the need for new leadership after eight years of Democratic control of the White House.

On the Media interview on third party fantasies

The Media's Third Party Delusion:

New NYT: The triggers for Trumpism

From my new Upshot column:

There is no one quite like Donald Trump — as either a human being or a presidential candidate. While he has been compared to populist insurgents like George Wallace and Ross Perot, neither came as close to the presidency as Mr. Trump will be if he secures the G.O.P. nomination.

But when we look beyond this country, we can see that Mr. Trump’s playbook is neither unique nor uniquely successful.

How we got here on Trump: A tweetstorm

New NYT: Hillary Clinton's flawed message

From my new Upshot column:

Political campaigns are supposed to promise hope and change, but Hillary Clinton is not offering enough of either — one of the most important reasons that she barely won Iowa and lost by a wide margin to Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire.

New NYT: The downside of dynastic politics

From my new Upshot column:

Why have Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton struggled so much during this campaign? It might seem as if the public is weary of Bushes and Clintons and has turned against dynastic politics, but voters don’t usually punish politicians for being members of political families. Becoming a long-term member of the House of Representatives, for example, substantially increases the odds that a relative will also serve in Congress.

But the advantages that dynastic candidates enjoy come at a cost: Those who end up seeking the presidency may discover that they lack the campaign skills of other credible contenders.

New NYT: The obstacles to a Bloomberg win

From my new Upshot column:

The dream of a centrist third-party presidential candidate will never die.

Michael Bloomberg, the media billionaire and former New York City mayor, is once again considering running for president, but how broad is his appeal?

Although he may wish to portray himself as a centrist alternative to more extreme presidential contenders, Mr. Bloomberg wouldn’t enter the race with a public image that is especially conducive to a third-party run.

New NYT: The downside of Trump touting his polls

From my new Upshot column:

Donald Trump misses no opportunity to remind us that he’s ahead in the polls for the Republican presidential nomination. During a rally in Claremont, N.H., last week, he said, “When people say, ‘Why do you always talk about the polls?’ I say, ‘Because I’m winning!’ Believe me, if I’m not winning, I don’t talk about them.”

Many pundits interpret these kind of statements as a reflection of Mr. Trump’s ego, which is not an unreasonable view. He does like talking about himself. But he may also be trying to generate a bandwagon effect, a well-documented phenomenon in political science but one that may leave him vulnerable to future disruptions.

New research on journalistic fact-checking

I have a new article out in the Journal of Communication with Lucas Graves and Jason Reifler on the reasons journalists engage in fact-checking (ungated preprint):

Understanding Innovations in Journalistic Practice: A Field Experiment Examining Motivations for Fact-Checking
Lucas Graves, Brendan Nyhan, and Jason Reifler

Why has fact-checking spread so quickly within U.S. political journalism? In the first field experiment conducted among reporters, we varied journalist exposure to messages that highlight either audience demand for fact-checking or the prestige it enjoys within the profession. Our results indicate that messages promoting the high status and journalistic values of fact-checking increased the prevalence of fact-checking coverage, while messages about audience demand were somewhat less successful. These findings suggest that political fact-checking is driven primarily by professional motives within journalism, a finding that helps us understand the process by which the practice spreads within the press as well as the factors that influence the behavior of journalists.

New NYT: Trump's misdiagnosis of extremist opinion

From my new Upshot column:

On Monday, Donald Trump singled out American Muslims as supporting repression and violence, citing a discredited poll from an anti-Muslim group as evidence for imposing border restrictions. But if he is worried about extremist public opinion in the United States, he should take a broader look around.

Research shows that Muslim Americans are less likely to endorse violence against civilians than other religious groups. Moreover, the evidence suggests that a non-trivial minority of Americans of all faiths and backgrounds is willing to endorse the sorts of violence against the government and repressive legal measures that Mr. Trump accused Muslims of disproportionately supporting.

New On the Media interview on fact-checking

My interview with Brooke Gladstone about the prospects for fact-checking in the age of Trump:

(I also did a related interview on fact-checking and Trump with New Hampshire Public Radio.)

New NYT: Talking politics at Thanksgiving

From my new Upshot column:

It’s time for that annual American holiday tradition: awkward political conversation at the Thanksgiving dinner table. With the 2016 presidential primary campaign in full swing and public interest on the rise, the odds are good that relatives will share their thoughts with you about why one candidate will win or how another is going to destroy America. I can’t tell you how to keep your family away from sensitive topics, but here are brief answers to some frequently asked questions about current events and the 2016 race.

New NYT: Overrating outrage in Obama’s Paris response

From my new Upshot column:

With all the reporting and commentary that faulted President Obama for not displaying more anger at his news conference Monday on the Paris attacks, it almost seemed as if people hoped he would bring back Luther, the satirical “anger translator” played by Keegan-Michael Key who appeared alongside him at the White House Correspondents Dinner in April.

Displays of emotion have become an expected ritual in the age of the televised presidency, but President Obama has often been reluctant to reveal how he feels after major events. This pattern goes back to the very beginning of his time in office.

New NYT: Why Paris probably isn't a "game changer"

From my new Upshot column:

Until last week, the threat from terrorism had received little attention from candidates or voters during the 2016 campaign. In one poll, just 3 percent of Americans rated it the most important problem facing the country.

The horrific attacks that took place Friday in Paris have, at least for the moment, changed that dynamic. CBS quickly moved to increase the emphasis on foreign policy and national security during Saturday night’s Democratic debate. Candidates are scrambling to adjust to the news, which media analysis has suggested might “alter” the character of the race, for instance by helping more experienced candidates like Hillary Rodham Clinton and hurting outsiders like Donald Trump.

How long-lasting an effect will the Paris attacks have on the United States presidential race? Absent further attacks, the suggestion that Paris will prove to be a “game changer” is unlikely to be correct.

New NYT: The limits of the tobacco strategy on climate

From my new Upshot column:

For years, activists and scholars have contended that groups who reject the scientific consensus on climate change are employing tactics once used to create doubt about the dangers of smoking.

Now environmentalists are taking a page from tobacco opponents by suggesting oil companies misled investors and the public about the risks of climate change. The first step toward a legal inquiry came Wednesday evening when the New York attorney general subpoenaed records from Exxon Mobil.

While this tactic helped tobacco opponents win over regulators and the public, it may be a less effective approach to addressing political opposition to climate change — an issue on which both elites and the public are deeply divided.

New NYT: How will Democrats pass their agenda?

From my new Upshot column:

The Democratic presidential candidates covered a lot of ground during their debate Tuesday, but one issue received little attention: their theory of political change. How exactly would Hillary Rodham Clinton or her rivals pass the programs and proposals they advocate?

New NYT: Deflategate polarization & conspiracy beliefs

From my new Upshot column:

Sports fans may have more in common with political partisans than you might think — specifically, a home-team bias that shapes what they believe to be true about the world.

As a result, the beliefs of fans — or partisans — who know the most about a particular controversy are often more polarized, not less. It’s true in politics, science and, perhaps surprisingly, sports.

That’s what my colleagues and I found when we examined what the public believes about the ball-deflation controversy that started in last season’s N.F.L. playoffs and that is likely to continue to provoke further debate this week before Sunday night’s game between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts.

New NYT: House disarray unlikely to help Democrats

From my new Upshot column:

With House Republicans in disarray after John Boehner’s likely successor withdrew from the Speaker’s race Thursday, speculation has grown about potential damage to the party’s chances in the 2016 election. Will voters punish the G.O.P. for the actions of a conservative faction that blocked Kevin McCarthy’s ascension and has been willing to repeatedly risk government shutdowns in confrontations with President Obama?

Recent history suggests that the political costs of turmoil and confrontation for the G.O.P. are likely to be minimal.

New NYT: The problem with "authenticity"

From my new Upshot column:

Is Hillary Rodham Clinton not presenting her true self to voters? As with candidates like Mitt Romney and Al Gore, claims that she is inauthentic have fueled endless cycles of negative coverage of her campaign.

In reality, all politicians are strategic about the image and behaviors they present to voters. Some just hide the artifice better than others.

New NYT: Will crime return as a GOP election strategy?

From my new Upshot column:

Over the last few weeks, a number of Republican presidential candidates have begun to criticize President Obama and the Black Lives Matter protest movement, saying they are encouraging crime. Although there’s little evidence of a crime wave outside of a few major cities where homicides have increased, the political rationale seems obvious: The candidates are playing to the G.O.P. base, a normal part of the primary season.

Another possibility, though, is that Republicans are also still searching for the best angle of attack against Hillary Rodham Clinton and the Democrats, who remain narrow betting market favorites in 2016. Despite recent economic turbulence, the Democrats’ main advantage at this point is a generally positive economic outlook for next year, which requires Republicans to look for other issues they can wield against the incumbent party.

New NYT: Donald Trump, the Green Lantern candidate

From my new Upshot column:

Why is Donald Trump leading the polls in the G.O.P. presidential race? One explanation is his celebrity and the media attention he attracts. But he has also exploited our vulnerability to pleasing fictions about presidential power.

We like to pretend that presidents exert vast control over the country, commanding not only the direction of American politics but also the laws and policies of the country and even the state of the economy.

When presidents fail to control events to our liking, critics often suggest that the problem is the chief executive’s failure to try hard enough or act tough enough. I’ve called this pattern the Green Lantern theory of the presidency after the comic book superheroes who wield special rings with powers that are limited only by the hero’s willpower.

Mr. Trump is the purest Green Lantern candidate we’ve seen in recent years.

New NYT: Biden is already running

From my new Upshot column:

Is Joe Biden running for president? Effectively yes, even though he is not yet a declared candidate.

Buzz has grown about a potential Biden candidacy this week after The Times columnist Maureen Dowd wrote that he was considering entering the race, in part because of urging from his son Beau, who died in May.

Media accounts have suggested that the decision will be made during a family vacation in September, but Mr. Biden is functionally already a candidate in the so-called invisible primary, which plays an enormous role in nomination contests. The question now is whether he will receive enough support to decide to make it official.

New NYT: How to follow presidential polls

From my new Upshot column:

The onslaught of presidential polls has already begun. You may be tempted to avoid the polling deluge, but the results of these surveys do influence the campaign, including who will get invited to the first G.O.P. debate. That’s why we want to show you how to read (or ignore) the polls like a pro.

New NYT: Hillary Clinton *is* likable enough

From my new Upshot column:

Is Hillary Rodham Clinton in trouble? You would think so from the coverage of recent polls showing that her unfavorable ratings have increased nationally and in key states.

Multiple media outlets and pundits have suggested that her personal unpopularity 20 months before the presidential election is a major problem for her. A Washington Post article described the poll numbers as “decidedly sobering for Hillary Clinton’s presidential prospects in 2016.”

The underlying theory is, as The Post piece put it, that “presidential politics tends to be dominated by personality” and that Mrs. Clinton “may be hard pressed to win a traditional presidential election in which likability matters most.” Likewise, a Los Angeles Times article approvingly cited the maxim that “it’s often said that elections can boil down to a contest of who would a voter rather have a beer with.”

None of these claims are supported by the data.

New NYT: Is the Roberts Court really drifting left?

From my new Upshot column:

The Supreme Court continued a trend Thursday morning toward making seemingly more liberal decisions. In two important cases, the court’s conservative majority was again split, putting liberal justices in the majority on decisions upholding the legality of certain subsidies to help Americans purchase insurance under the Affordable Care Act and offering legal protection against housing discrimination.

Why are conservatives losing more often? While the justices may have changed their views in some instances, it’s also possible that the types of cases the court is deciding have shifted. What seem like liberal decisions may instead represent conservative overreach.